Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 2.082799 2.433281 2.822263 3.285662 3.822396 4.424244 5.150081
2025-12-28 1.608620 2.096977 2.697839 3.489996 4.505472 5.762158 7.434248
2026-01-04 1.254387 1.790156 2.507707 3.535538 4.966471 6.884260 9.645960
2026-01-11 1.019755 1.571437 2.365205 3.584436 5.403241 8.008227 12.013879
2026-01-18 0.843030 1.389550 2.226728 3.593262 5.757642 9.040461 14.381568
2026-01-25 0.704370 1.233504 2.090930 3.568782 6.037824 9.978263 16.717864
2026-02-01 0.564176 1.045493 1.867370 3.357377 5.972796 10.347423 18.181662
2026-02-08 0.469601 0.916913 1.718487 3.240776 6.036559 10.917645 20.032737
2026-02-15 0.406201 0.832575 1.631581 3.215586 6.248651 11.756785 22.445677
2026-02-22 0.371990 0.797388 1.628084 3.341199 6.749295 13.165362 26.060080
2026-03-01 0.326020 0.730087 1.551436 3.311515 6.945252 14.028486 28.753741
2026-03-08 0.284456 0.664442 1.467242 3.252122 7.070210 14.764548 31.284596
2026-03-15 0.251193 0.612717 1.407349 3.241924 7.311087 15.793905 34.613852
2026-03-22 0.242232 0.615185 1.465665 3.499055 8.162985 18.194603 41.133642
2026-03-29 0.220173 0.582501 1.440087 3.564141 8.603368 19.788320 46.152124
2026-04-05 0.200268 0.551300 1.412664 3.620191 9.030950 21.409611 51.450223
2026-04-12 0.180328 0.516117 1.369683 3.631430 9.354002 22.837168 56.497784
2026-04-19 0.161166 0.479236 1.316205 3.607491 9.587248 24.085985 61.291838
2026-04-26 0.136031 0.420717 1.196921 3.394119 9.313027 24.090363 63.090064
2026-05-03 0.118398 0.380200 1.118595 3.276365 9.266744 24.643122 66.315733
2026-05-10 0.106494 0.354401 1.076430 3.250936 9.462009 25.827427 71.303682
2026-05-17 0.101074 0.347642 1.087371 3.377896 10.093738 28.219080 79.753512
2026-05-24 0.091217 0.324654 1.046790 3.347900 10.279236 29.454210 85.272920